A tale of two conference speeches: Ed Davey declared the Lib Dems to be the party of low taxes, and outlined £17bn of tax cuts to Income Tax and Fuel Duty, paid for by making a better deal with the EU, whilst Andy Burnham proposed a National Care Service – with an estimated cost of £18bn according to the Health Foundation. Burnham proposed funding this by adjusting the Triple Lock – although he didn’t explain it that well in the speech. The new approach will tackle the “ratchet” effect – where inflation is high one year, wages grow high in the second in response, so the pension grows rapidly twice in a row. The new system will keep it roughly in line with a third of average wages, making it more predictable and affordable. Importantly, it will never decline in real terms.
The triple lock was designed for those halcyon days of the 2010s – low inflation and modest wage growth, not the stagflation of the 2020s which in our hubris we assumed was condemned to the history books of the 1970s.
Now Burnham’s costings don’t actually add up – his proposal will start to save substantial sums over the long term – but will be a few billion short. That’s fine, it’s a conference speech not a Budget. All the major opposition parties came out the gate to oppose this – despite initial polling showing that this trade off is popular and fair.
Davey said that social care can’t wait for the next parliament – we need action now – which we all agree with. He also said it shouldn’t be funded by modifying the Triple Lock, which begs the question, can we afford the Triple Lock? The answer is yes for the next 10 or 15 years, but not as a low tax party.










