Mathew on Monday: Why the Lib Dems must be the credible alternative in a chaotic political landscape

The launch of “Your Party” over the weekend – the Jeremy Corbyn/Zarah Sultana-backed left-wing challenger to Labour – was hyped as being a show of unity, clarity, and a bold new politics. Instead, it descended into exactly the sort of chaotic spectacle that leaves most voters even more weary: factional infighting, activists and organisers being banned within hours, claim and counterclaim splashed across social media, and a level of internal turmoil that normally takes years, not mere minutes, to ferment.

For a party that’s mere days old, and that hasn’t contested a single election yet, it was an extraordinary, almost surreal mess.
And that matters – not because “Your Party” is posed to storm the political landscape (it isn’t), but because it reveals something deeper about the current state of British politics. Across the spectrum, there is a hunger for an alternative to a Labour government that – not even eighteen months into office – feels increasingly managerial, defensive, and exhausted far earlier than anyone expected.

There is a desire for something more hopeful, more principled, more genuinely radical than what Sir Keir Starmer’s team have delivered but equally, people want a party that is serious, credible, competent – not another protest movement that collapses into its own contradictions before it has even begun.

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An OK budget, but it could have been much better

Rachel Reeves’ second budget has some things which we should like plus some things we should dislike.

Ed Davey shouldn’t attack the government for increasing the tax burden. We as a party should accept that people want better public services and this means that the tax burden has to increase.

We should welcome the ending of the two-child benefit cap which has been our party policy for years. Ed has welcomed the changes to fund three-quarters of the cost of the increased use of renewable energy from the government rather than consumers, which will reduce energy bills. We should welcome the near doubling of the Remote Gaming Duty. I think we should welcome the extra 2% on the all three income tax rates for income from property and savings. However, should the income tax rates for dividend income have been increased by more than 2% particularly at the ordinary rate?

We should welcome the support for retail, hospitality and leisure by reducing their business rates. We should welcome the Mansion Tax on homes above £2 million. We should welcome the extension of Air Passenger Duty to private jets over 5.7 tonnes. We should welcome the £2,000 cap to salary sacrifice as it is mostly those on higher incomes who can afford to do this.

We should oppose the introduction of VAT on the Motability Scheme making the cost of having a suitable car more expensive for disabled people. Perhaps we should oppose the 3p per mile tax on Electric Vehicles. However, this had to be introduced at some time as the total revenue on petrol duties reduces because of the switch to Electric Vehicles.

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Ed Davey is wrong to U-turn on a Mansion Tax

There was much in Rachel Reeves’ Budget last week for Liberal Democrats to criticise. The freezing of the income tax bands is a stealth tax. It will gradually push many people over time into higher tax bands, something that will especially hurt low income earners. The new tax on electric vehicles is a retrograde step when we are facing a climate crisis and we need more car owners to go green. In addition, Labour failed to implement a windfall tax on the big banks, something that we have been calling for.

However, it was not all bad news for Liberal …

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Cutting waiting lists and the Budget

In her Budget Statement the Chancellor of the Exchequer stated one of her aims was to cut waiting lists in the NHS.

According to a survey by the Times newspaper earlier this year it was estimated that there were on average 13,600 older people in hospital every day who did not need to be there awaiting social care, costing the NHS £2.9m per year. Therefore, one cannot resolve the problems of the NHS in isolation of social care.

The NHS and social care are in crisis and in need of radical reform, restructuring and cultural change to liberate the professionals from the constraining contract culture into an enabling leadership one. This requires the creation of whole task right sized multi-disciplinary teams aligned behind outcome able to plan, do and evaluate their own work which completes the learning cycle of constant improvement.

There is a wealth of empirical evidence into the social determinants of health which has demonstrated the correlation between income and demand upon the health services. One cannot go on throwing more money at the first aid camp at the bottom of the cliff without building a fence at the top. Treating the symptoms not the cause. A whole systems approach is required.

If the Chancellor really wanted to save money she would increase and not reduce the income of older people. Before the COVID19 pandemic killed 223,396 mainly older dependent people, 80% of the expenditure of health and social care was on older people. Britain has one of the lowest state pensions in the developed world with 2m older people living in poverty. To increase the state pension to lift all older people out of poverty would reduce demand upon the NHS and social care. It would also improve the quality of life of many and if older people did need long term care, applying the same financial assessment which has been in place since 1948 (when few people owned their own house) they would be able to pay more without having to take their house or capital into account which would also increase government revenue from inheritance tax.

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Are we witnessing the end of Britain’s ‘special relationship’ with the US

Ever since 1941 the fundamental assumption of British foreign policy has been that the ‘special relationship’ with the USA is the foundation of our international security and status.  Winston Churchill reimagined Britain as America’s ‘Ango-Saxon’ partner, and as ‘the bridge’ between North America and continental Europe.  Huge numbers of US forces were based in Britain during the war; 10,000 US personnel, in several USAF airbases and intelligence stations, still remain.  Access to US intelligence, nuclear missiles and defence technology is crucial to our defence and security.  The UK has of course become more and more the junior partner in the relationship, but still – policy-makers have argued – sufficiently valuable to Washington to continue to give us privileged status.

What if the special relationship is now over?  President Trump has said he looks forward to Germany becoming the leading power within NATO.  London has been left as much in the dark on Trump’s latest plan for Ukraine as Paris, Berlin and Rome.  Several generations after the shared experience of World War Two that created the special relationship, fewer and fewer Americans (in an increasingly diverse society) see themselves as part of an Anglo-Saxon world or feel any particular affection for Britain.  

Trump, Vance and others on the hard right see Britain as a territory to be gained, a country to be converted to their vision of free market capitalism and ‘Christian nationalism.’  Money flows into Britain from US foundations promoting ‘traditional values’ and patriarchal society.  The US ambassador in London intervenes in public procurement decisions to protest that our government ought to favour US companies.  But there’s little sense of partnership, only repeated denigration of today’s British society and liberal values.

Tony Blair saw Britain as America’s privileged partner because we also played a leading role in Europe.  Boris Johnson fantasised that we could regain a global role without Europe, only to find that we could not even send a carrier task force to the Pacific without support from other navies.  The UK outside the EU remains of some importance to the USA, if we dared to remind Washington.  We’ve just agreed to pay Mauritius £100m a year for the US base on Diego Garcia.  The US benefits from intelligence stations and access to bases in the UK, Cyprus, Ascension Island and beyond.  But US Administrations focussed on China and Latin America place less value on the sharing of other global assets.  ‘America First’ advocates on the right of the MAGA movement are now denigrating Winston Churchill as a warmonger, who took the USA into war in Europe when he should have made peace with Germany.  Even if the Democrats regain control of the Presidency this isolationist resurgence will block a return to Atlantic cooperation.

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Mark Pack’s November report to members

What other Lib Dems can learn from County Durham

Ahead of the local elections in May, Liberal Democrats in County Durham were facing all-up elections on new council boundaries, requiring more candidates than the party had ever stood before.

They rose admirably to the challenge, standing a record number of candidates, making a net gain in the face of a Reform wave, becoming the official opposition on the council  – and continuing to make progress since, including with a by-election win off Reform.

A very impressive record of progress, based in part on flipping around one of our usual approaches. Often we talk about how growing our membership is important to help smaller local parties grow and succeed. But in County Durham they did it the other way round. They identified the most pressing need: for more local election candidates. Then they searched widely for people willing to take on the role, and only then, for those who were not yet members of the party got them to sign up. In other words, they prioritised specific recruitment of people to fit the most needed local roles, and membership growth followed from that.

People who had grown up in areas without any Lib Dem local election candidates were strongly motivated by their personal experiences to want to change that. Membership growth was the later consequence, rather than the initial focus.

Alongside that, they followed our best practice in how to get more members volunteering – breaking down big tasks into small steps people could take on, having a regular schedule of when help would be needed and advertising internally for ways people can help other than, or in addition to, leafleting and canvassing.

That is an important lesson for us to learn more widely, as there has been an odd duality of the story about grassroots strength in the last few years. On many measures, there has been clear and sustained progress – more councillors, fewer councils with no Lib Dems on them, more canvassing taking place outside target seats, fewer council wards going without a Lib Dem candidate and more extensive delivery networks. Yet alongside that our membership total is back to where it was before the (anti-)Brexit boom in membership.

Part of the reason for these contrasting pictures is that the immediate incentive across the party is to find people to help share the workload with. Hence, for example, asking a keen supporter on the doorstep to become a leaflet deliverer rather than a member, as helping get those leaflets out is the immediate priority.

What County Durham shows us, perhaps, is that rather than focusing on membership itself but instead focusing on recruiting people to needed roles may be the way forward – both to bigger local campaign organisations and higher party membership.

Good news for Lib Dem leaflet designers

A new version of Affinity – the software package widely used in the party to design leaflets – is out. Even better, it is now free. There are some advanced paid-for features, but you can do everything needed to produce cracking leaflets with the free version.

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ALDC By-Election Report, 27th November

This week saw three principal council by‑elections in England, each offering a glimpse into the shifting local political landscape. The most notable was in Pendle, where the Liberal Democrats faced the challenge of defending this council seat against the rising threat of Reform, whose presence on the ballot paper added uncertainty surrounding the contest.

Beginning in the town of Barlick, we were able to successfully defend this seat with a clear and decisive victory. Polling day happened to fall on Lancashire Day, even though the town itself has sat on the wrong side of the county line for the past fifty years. The Liberal Democrats strengthened our position, while both Labour and the Conservatives saw their vote collapse. Meanwhile, Reform UK made its first appearance here with a sizeable vote share but ultimately fell well short of mounting a serious challenge.

Congratulations are due to Councillor Bryony Hartley and the local team for ensuring this remained a Liberal Democrat seat.

Pendle Borough Council, Barnoldswick
Liberal Democrats (Bryony Hartley): 1,008 (59.8%, +1.5)
Reform UK: 441 (26.2%, new)
Conservative: 170 (10.1%, -11.7)
Labour: 66 (3.9%, -11.1)

Liberal Democrats HOLD

Turnout: 25.8%

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Taxing the poor to protect the rich?

The Chancellor’s budget speech was strong on rhetoric and good intentions. However, with the exception of the property tax, it was almost as though Rachel Reeves was unaware of the existence of the super-rich or the rising income inequality in our society which Morris Pearl, Chair of the Patriotic Millionaires and a former Managing Director at Black Rock believes “threatens everything we hold dear: our democracies, our planet and our broader society…..”.  Much of her address appeared to exclude the top 10% of earners.

In the Spring of 2025 Oxfam published its report “Takers not Makers” which suggested that global billionaire wealth had increased by £1.5trillion in 2024, a significant jump compared with the previous year. In contrast, according to the Office of National Statistics (ONS) the median household disposable income in the UK for the financial year ending 2023 was £34,500. This was a 2.5% decrease on the financial year ending 2022 when median household income was £35,100.

According to figures released by the Equality Trust, the UK is the sixth most unequal country by income of the 38 OECD countries. (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). Many employees are paid the minimum wage to pay for this. The challenge is to address pay differentials within organisations so that everyone gets a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work.

Unless Government tackles pay differentials, chasing inward investment in search of growth will make the rich richer and create low paid jobs for the masses as it has since the 1980s. The Equality Trust continues that “high income inequality weakens the social fabric and sense of cohesion between us. We are more likely to live, work and socialise in socially and economically segregated ways which can aid misunderstanding, resentment and undermine the sense of shared identity and purpose needed for a cohesive society”.

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Labour’s economic programme: hoodwinking, self-limiting, and failing

If you had asked me in July last year whether I had much hope for Labour’s plans for fixing our stagnating economy, our underfunded public services, and chronically weak social investment, I might have (cautiously) said “maybe”. But a year and four months later, I think I’d like to change my answer to “absolutely not”.

You would think that after fourteen years of being stuck in opposition, whether that be due to bacon sarnies or the Brexit bonanza, they would have had time to think. I, personally, at that time went to school, college, got a job, and fell in and out of love (much like the Parliamentary Labour Party does with their leadership), went to university (and somehow ended up as a Liberal Democrat), but I always thought about what I wanted to do.

However, much like a university student who procrastinates right up until deadline day (pre-ADHD meds me), they’ve put forward something that would barely get a “pass”. They came into government, telling us they would fix the dire state of our economy, but if anything they’ve done the opposite. They spent months handwringing about the importance of work, and intimidating vulnerable people with loss of benefits if they didn’t, but now unemployment is rising – due to their own policy. They promised there would be “no new taxes on working people”, and just as Keir Starmer hoodwinked Labour members in 2021, he’s hoodwinked the public with more stealth taxes.

Rachel Reeves has put in place her “fiscal rules”, and while she may claim to be pro-investment, her very own rules discourage borrowing to invest. She talked about Labour being the “Party of Work”, but by failing to borrow to invest in infrastructure projects, she’s left working people far worse off, with less opportunities, and worse social mobility. Labour are just incoherent, self-contradictory, and seem utterly unable to deliver for Britain right now.

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A Labour budget that does not back the savers, investors or working people

The follow up to Rachel Reeves’ huge raid on employers last year was expected to be more subdued, after all a 3% increase in employers National Insurance Contributions (NICs) did have the expected effect of slowing wage growth and a slowdown on new jobs, what we couldn’t have expected until a few weeks ago is that she’d come back again for it. Not for employers NICs, mind you not directly, but via the limit on Salary Sacrifice. When we have a Pension Commission ongoing on outcomes for current workers saving into private pensions, and have had an excellent piece by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) stating “39% of private sector employees are not on track to meet their target replacement rate”, it seemed unfathomable that this government would actually go for raising billions off Salary Sacrifice schemes. 

Sure enough, budget day comes, and Reeves has done exactly that, with a damning description from the OBR saying this measure would both reduce their employer contributions into pension pots and reduce future wage growth and bonuses. Hardly the message we want to send for the working age person trying to save for retirement. Even more foolhardy is that this reduction in wage growth comes when companies are faced with more employment pressures for hiring, with minimum wages creeping up above inflation, leaving less room for wages to grow and less jobs on the market. The tax choices this week will mean less growth and more unemployment for younger workers, whilst subsidising an ever unsustainable triple lock that benefits from double dipping on high inflation one year and higher nominal wage growth the next in response to inflation, this is not a budget that treats the savings of working age people well.

This budget confirmed the announcement on the Government following the US’ lead (and the EUs position this month) on removing a de minimis threshold on imported items. Paraded as a way to avoid high streets being undercut, it is dipping into the same protectionist rhetoric that the US is using on its tariffs, unconcerned on their policy measure responses on the cost of living. Liberals should never celebrate the imposition of tariffs and find it regrettable the new direction of travel is for new tariffs rather than liberalisation, a burden on the individual to collect items rather than ease, just another way this government is harming productivity. 

The past couple weeks briefed this budget as a Smörgåsbord, that conjures up a well presented Swedish table, but the tax pickings here are anything but. 

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Threshold freezes are a stealth tax on the poor

The Chancellor hopes no one notices. Voters are starting to realise.

There is no getting around it. The NHS and social care need more money – this is the lion’s share of the budget and is where the government is experiencing the greatest growth pressure. Every serious analysis from the IFS, the OBR and the Health Foundation says that demand, staffing pressures and rising clinical complexity make extra funding unavoidable. If we want a system that works, the state will need to raise more revenue.

The question is not whether we need to pay more. The question is how.

The government’s preferred method is to freeze income tax thresholds for year after year, pushing more of people’s wages into taxation without ever having to announce an explicit rise in basic or higher-rate tax. It sounds painless. Nothing changes on the payslip. No parliamentary vote. No headlines. But it is one of the least fair ways possible to raise revenue and it hits ordinary workers far harder than the wealthy.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has been unusually blunt about this. Their latest analysis of threshold freezes states that the impact is equivalent to raising all income tax rates by 3.5% by 2029. The Chancellor hopes no one notices that she did this, but people are starting to realise because their real living standards are not improving and the tax take continues to rise.

The numbers are stark, according to figures from the IFS. In 2021, around 59% of adults paid basic rate income tax. By 2029, that will be 72%. In 2021, 8% of adults paid higher-rate tax. By 2029, that will more than double to 17%. These are not people suddenly earning more in real terms. They are people whose wages are simply keeping pace with inflation while frozen thresholds quietly shift them into higher bands.

The Chancellor has also found another way to push people into paying more tax. By increasing the minimum wage faster than the personal allowance, she guarantees that even part-time workers are drawn into paying income tax for the first time. The IFS calculates that if the freeze is extended again, a full-time minimum wage worker will pay £137 more per year in tax compared with current policy, and £759 more than if thresholds had risen as normal. 

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Addressing the cost-of-dying crisis

Our party is dedicated to resolving the cost-of-living crisis, where inflated prices and insecure or short supply are affecting our ability to afford life’s necessities. However, there is a part of life being negatively impacted by inflation that goes undiscussed: death.

Death is never an easy subject to talk about, nor is it one that many of us want us to seriously contemplate. We will have experienced bereavement at some point in our lives, with many of us having organised the final farewells of family members and loved ones. However, ignoring such issues ignores the problems that inflation is causing during such fraught times.

Between 2004 and 2025, inflation rose by 75% overall, but the cost of funerals increased by 134%. Today, the cost of dying averages £9,797 – covering funerals and associated professional fees and send-off costs – while simple funerals cost £4,285 and direct cremations cost £1,597. These cost the same regardless of household income, meaning that those at the lower end of the scale must spend a greater proportion of annual income than those at the higher end.

Such financial difficulties are compounding the emotional toll of bereavement. While support can be provided in the form of the Funeral Expenses Payment, this only amounts to a maximum of £1,000, with all excess costs being paid out of pocket. Under such conditions, purchasers do not exercise the same consideration for funerals as they would with any other service, often relying on the first funeral provider they encounter, guided by expectations of what funerals should entail and consensus among family members rather than intended wishes or preferences.

Such considerations have led to significant changes in British funereal practices. With cost being a major factor, cremations constitute nearly 80% of final dispositions in the UK annually and public health funerals – services provided by local authorities – have increased. However, these changes entail problems of their own. Depending on where you live, local authorities can deny attendance by family members and loved ones, the inclusion of burial markers or the return of ashes at their discretion when providing public health funerals because of costs which they must bear.

Communities such as Jews and Muslims face disproportionate funeral costs because of their faiths. As Judaism and Islam prescribe burial and prohibit cremation, adherents must pay the higher costs incurred by the former practice.

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Ed Davey reacts to “botched” budget

Ed Davey has described Rachel Reeves’ budget as a failure. He said:

This was a botched Budget delivered by a Chancellor who has diagnosed the disease, but refuses to administer the cure.

This Government has chosen to reject the single biggest thing it could do to turbocharge economic growth and repair the £90 billion Brexit black hole.

Labour was elected on a promise of tackling the cost of living crisis and growing the economy – and this is the second budget where it’s failed to do either.  For millions of people struggling with higher bills, all this budget really offers is higher taxes.

David Chadwick, our Welsh MP, had this to say:

This is yet another budget that fails to deliver the structural changes needed to deliver for the people of Wales.

My constituents will be bitterly disappointed in the lack of help for the cost-of-living crisis and the failure of the Government to listen to Liberal Democrat calls to make energy bills cheaper and cut VAT for hospitality businesses.

Rural communities have been left abandoned again, with Labour’s refusal to compromise on the family farms tax set to cause devastation to the entire wider supply chain.

The Government has deliberately turned its back on the single most effective step it could take to kick-start growth and fill the £90 billion Brexit-shaped hole in the public finances. No wonder our public finances are in such a rough state.

He made further comments on the lifting of the two child benefit cap, which we opposed from the start:

This is a commendable move that will go a long way to addressing Wales’ sky-high child poverty levels, which are amongst the highest in Europe and something the Liberal Democrats have been campaigning on since 2017.

But this could have been done much sooner; thousands of Welsh Children have been dragged into poverty due to the Conservatives and Labour’s refusal to do this sooner.

This must be the start, rather than the end, to reducing child poverty in Wales, with the level of children in poverty almost stagnant since Labour started running the Welsh Government in 1999, we will need further action.

That is why we are calling on the Welsh Government to introduce 30 hours of funded childcare per week for every child in Wales aged between 9 months and 4 years old.

And he welcomed the release of the investment reseerve of the British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme back to its members. This will not cost the public purse anything but will make a massive difference to the lower paid staff in particular – the office staff and the nurses, for example, who are its members and are mostly women. In fact, it will bring a gain in taxes.

He has been really active on this issue since he was elected last year:

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Giving Palestinians support, strength and hope

On Sunday a friend and former colleague in Gaza called Mamdouh wrote to me, “By the grace of God, we’ve just prepared a delicious meal of falafel using all the traditional fresh ingredients – chickpeas, garlic, parsley and green pepper. It was a truly delightful experience, especially since it’s been a year a half since we last enjoyed falafel made from authentic ingredients rather than canned ones.” His photos and a video show Mamdouh using a hand-mincer to prepare the falafel mix.

Mamdouh was a librarian in one of Gaza’s universities. In the past two years he’s lost his livelihood, his family home, and, most tragically, one of his five children, killed in an Israeli strike only hours before the “ceasefire” was announced. So it’s all the more moving to hear him counting his blessings.

He also takes a great interest in the activities of Lib Dem Friends of Palestine, commenting in detail on photos I’ve sent of, for instance, Conference marking the Recognition of Palestine, or Lib Dems taking part in the regular London peace marches. He’s aware of the Lib Dems’ commitment to justice, the rule of law, human rights and self-determination and nationhood for the Palestinian people. I privately think of him as an honorary Lib Dem himself!

In response to his photos this week, I told Mamdouh that Lib Dems would be out on the streets again this Saturday on International Palestine Solidarity Day. He quickly replied, “I’m moved to hear about the upcoming march in London for the Palestine Solidarity Day – your support gives us strength and hope. May our shared voices bring about meaningful change and a brighter future for all. With heartfelt gratitude, Mamdouh.”

He went on to send me some background on this special day which I didn’t know. It can be tempting to thing these ‘named days’ are just randomly created at the whim of  a marketing director somewhere. But Mamdouh sent this:

The International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People is observed annually on November 29th.

This day was established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1977 and is commemorated each year to express global support for the rights of the Palestinian people and to mark the anniversary of UN Resolution 181, which was adopted on the same date in 1947 and called for the partition of Palestine.

Purpose of the day: To affirm the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people, including their right to self-determination, national independence and the return of refugees.

Activities: Exhibitions, seminars, solidarity gatherings, and the raising of the Palestinian flag at UN offices worldwide.

Symbolism:  This day serves as an opportunity for nations, organisations and individuals to express their support for the Palestinian cause.

In fact that Resolution 181 was no cause for celebration at the time, since Palestinians were, understandably, opposed to the partition of Palestine, and their leaders and their Arab neighbours voted against it. But I’m not going to quibble about this with Mamdouh now, because almost 80 years on from 1947 events have of course panned out very badly for the Palestinians, and at this point it seems appropriate for liberals to take any opportunity we’re given to stand up for the rights of this long-suffering people.

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Liberator 432 is out

Cover of Liberator 432 showing two horses in middle of road signed Lib Dem strategy, both saying they are not frightened.

Liberator 432 is out.

You can download Liberator 432 for free here. and remember you can sign up here to be emailed when each issue comes out:

In this issue we have what we think is the first full account in English of how social liberal party D66 won in the Netherlands, and how Roz Savage MP’s solo ocean rowing experiences informed her views on the environment.

Also, find out in Radical Bulletin what went wrong with party elections, what’s happened to membership and about a panic over the Federal Council’s powers

MAN TROUBLE 

Young men are drifting to Reform but the Liberal Democrats could win them back if they only tried, says Isaac Tucker

YES WE CAN!

Annelou van Egmond explains how a stricter immigration policy helped the social liberal party D66 come top in the Dutch general election.

REGENERATION GAP.

Roz Savage MP argues Britain needs more than net zero targets and masterplans – it needs a great regeneration of nature, communities, economy and democracy

EATING THE BIG APPLE 

The triumph of democratic socialist Zoran Mamdani as New York’s mayoral race has not been grasped by the Democrat establishment, says Rebecca Tinsley

HAS THE FIGHTBACK AGAINST TRUMP STARTED?

Martha Elliott looks at signals that the American public has had enough of its president

GIVE THE HIGH STREETS A HEART 

The Liberal Democrat policy paper on high streets and town centres lacks ideas on how to rescue them from decline, says Roger Hayes

MISSING MEMBERS 

Why do the Liberal Democrats pay so little attention to membership? wonders Tad Jones

WHEN TO FLY A  FLAG

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What are Lib Dems saying about the Budget?

I don’t know if you feel the same, but it seems to me that this is the longest run-up to a Budget that I can remember.  We’ve been talking about it forever. At times the Government’s communications around Rachel Reeves’ second budget have made the Omnishambles Budget of 2012 look competent.

First we were raising income tax rates then we weren’t, the Black Hole in the country’s finances has been of varying sizes and suddenly there now seems to be billions down the back of the sofa to stave off a break in the manifesto promise.

I don’t mind paying more tax. In fact, if I want decent public services and to tackle poverty,  I think a household on our income should be paying significantly more than we are. I really hope that our reaction to today’s announcements is more than “Aaaargh…..tax.”

So what do Lib Dems want to see from the Budget?

We’re looking for energy bills to be cut, cutting VAT for hospitality and getting a better deal with the European Union. We quite like the increase in the minimum wage, but we want to see more opportunities for businesses to grow as Treasury Spokesperson Daisy Cooper said:

Increasing the minimum wage is always welcome news for millions of low-paid workers but unless businesses are able to grow, there is a danger that this will result in fewer jobs being available overall.

The government must make people’s money go further by slashing energy bills, boosting our high streets with a cut to VAT for hospitality until 2027, and going for growth with a better deal with Europe.

We’ve opposed the two child benefit cap brought in by the Conservatives from the start so we should welcome its abolition.

After Lib Dem instigated research from the House of Commons Library showed that the costs of Brexit to the nation, namely a staggering £90 billion in tax revenue in 2024/25, Scottish spokesperson Susan Murray said:

The economy is at a standstill. Despite years of promises from the Conservatives and now Labour to kickstart growth and clamp down on crushing household bills, the British people are facing a cost-of-living permacrisis and yet more betrayals from those in charge.

The Government must not load struggling households or high streets with yet more tax rises to pay for its own mistakes. Rachel Reeves must take bold action to slash the cost of living, rescue our high streets, and start fixing the mess left by Brexit – by negotiating a new Customs Union with the EU, to grow our economy and bring in tens of billions for the Exchequer.

Anything else would be tantamount to a dereliction of duty.

Steve Darling, our DWP Spokesperson, has been talking about the impact of freezing tax thresholds on pensioners. I agree with him that we need to worry about those on the lowest incomes having to find extra money because they’ve been dragged into income tax.

This is a stealth tax bombshell that will hit pensioners hard, leaving those affected £800 a year worse off – and Labour is poised to make that nightmare even worse.

Rachel Reeves once called extending these tax thresholds a policy that would ‘hurt working people’. Now it’s clear she’s getting ready to copy the economic vandalism of the past.

The Chancellor must stand by her word, rule out an extension to this outrageous tax freeze at the Budget, and stop hammering pensioners who have already been left out in the cold by skyrocketing energy prices and the disastrous Winter Fuel Payment scandal.

According to a blog post from Independent Age for Equal Pay Day, many of  the poorest older people are women so it is improtant that we take an intersectional approach to this:

While poverty affects almost two million of all older people across the UK, older women are disproportionately impacted. Behind closed doors and on fixed incomes, hundreds of thousands of older women are finding it harder to make ends meet. The statistics are stark:

Poverty among older women is projected to rise from 20% in 2022 to 26% by 2040
Women aged 55 to 59 have 48% less private pension wealth than men in the same group
Older women too often face a future shaped not by rest and recognition, but by rising costs, shrinking incomes and a system they feel overlooks them. At Independent Age, we are determined to ensure that all older people in financial hardship receive better support which they are entitled to.

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Wealth tax: leading the war against inequality

Since the founding of the Liberal Party, we have held that taxation must do more than fund the state: it must correct the injustice of extreme wealth. As John Stuart Mill wrote in his Principles of Political Economy, “The State should use taxation as a means to mitigate the inequalities of wealth.”

Across the UK today, campaigners, economists, and MPs from several parties are calling for a modern Wealth Tax. The current proposal is a 2% annual tax on all wealth above £10 million, affecting only a tiny fraction of the population but raising billions to support public services, reduce inequality, and strengthen the foundations of our society.

Many worry that taxing wealth could reduce incentives to invest or innovate. This small Wealth Tax is intended as a starting point—it allows individuals to retain vast sums before taxes apply, and in the future, there may be more required to ensure fairness and shared prosperity.

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Mutual Benefit for learning from each other: My thoughts on the success of our sister parties, and the Liberal International Executive Committee 2025

You know, the Dutch, they are so liberal, they’ve got two liberal parties… And one of them, the one that’s most like us, D66, were the smaller party in a coalition, and then in 2006 they got stuffed. 2%, 3 MPs, they came ninth.… But you know what, just scroll forward to last year at the European elections. Ninth? No. First. First. … There’s a model we can copy. Survival and revival is in our grasp. Have hope. Have belief.

– Speech by Tim Farron, our former leader, on 2015.

Fast forward to 29th October 2025, D66 became the largest party in the Dutch parliament for the first time, with the vote share of 16.9%. No political pundit predicted this happening when the election was called. According to most opinion polls, they were only on 5-6%. D66 was not even invited to the TV debate between the major parties.

Meanwhile, VVD suffered from a setback at the early stage of the election campaign after a mishap of their party leader Dilan Yeşilgöz MP. However they recovered very quickly and retained 22 seats (A loss of only 2), which is quite an achievement considering they had been in the last government with the populist PVV.

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Stand up for poor people: the Chancellor’s Budget must not make things worse

As the Chancellor prepares to deliver the Budget tomorrow, those with the most to lose are the poorest in our society.

Many of you reading this can hardly imagine living on £20,000 a year before housing costs, yet that is the reality for millions. It is roughly 60% of the median income, the level officially defined as “poor.” While the cost-of-living crisis hurts everyone, it hits low-income households hardest. Food, rent and fuel now swallow almost all their disposable income. Far from helping, the government has made life harder.

About 14 million people – one in five – live in relative poverty after housing costs. That includes 4.3 million children, 8.1 million working-age adults and nearly two million pensioners. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reports that child poverty has risen from 27% in 2010-11 to 30% in 2022-23. More than two-thirds of poor children live in households where at least one adult works. Poverty is no longer confined to those out of work; it has become an everyday feature of low-wage Britain.

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Mathew on Monday: time to end the triple lock and finally give younger generations a fair deal

On Wednesday the Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her long awaited (long feared?) Budget at a critical time for Britain’s economy and society.

As liberals committed to inter-generational fairness, we must seize this moment to call for a major reform: scrapping the state pension “triple lock.” The triple lock – the guarantee that the state pension increases each year by whichever is highest of inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5% – was introduced with good intentions. Yet today it is deeply unfair to the many younger people facing stagnant wages, rising housing costs and insecure careers.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies warns …

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What happened to wealth tax?

There are few issues which animate both the super-rich and the political Left more than the notion of a wealth tax. The idea has been championed by the French Left: a 2% levy would be levied on the roughly 0.01% of household assets worth over 100 mn. Euros. Britain’s Green Party has also adopted it as a signature policy. There is a global version of the same idea promoted by Brazil’s President Lula.

For populist politicians, a wealth tax has a double appeal: it can, in theory, promote greater equality and ‘fairness’, and, also in theory, raise a lot of money for public services. Theory and practice have however diverged.

A wealth tax is unlikely to be in the coming UK budget despite advocacy by Neil Kinnock, leading trades unions and others. Indeed, it is being abandoned by governments including those with a social democratic, redistributive agenda: Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Sweden. They found that the tax was difficult to operate, easily avoided and raised disappointing amounts. Only Norway, Spain and Swiss cantons retain a comprehensive wealth tax.

Political demands for wealth taxation are energised by extreme and growing inequalities at global and national level. The world’s wealthiest man is Elon Musk, and his personal fortune appears to be around $500 billion. He has recently negotiated a pay settlement which could earn a further $1000 billion (a trillion) over the next decade: equivalent to the combined salaries of all primary school teachers in the USA.

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The battle for local government transparency starts here

Our local news media is at the heart of community and the first line of defence against corruption in public life. Across the country, thousands of local journalists work tirelessly to hold power to account on behalf of local residents, uncovering truths which powerful decision-makers might prefer to keep hidden.

As more power is devolved to local decision makers, the transparency and scrutiny provided by local journalists will become even more important. Citizens must have full oversight of any plans to change how their local authority governs, and how their money is being spent.

The underlying aim of the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill to give more power to local communities is laudable. At the News Media Association, we passionately support vibrant local communities served by strong local news media titles.

However, one part of the Bill has caused concern and bemusement within our sector – namely the provision to remove the statutory requirement within the Local Government Act 2000 for communities to be notified of changes to a council’s governance structure through a public notice in a local newspaper. Instead, councils would be free to flag such changes “in a manner they think appropriate”, giving scope for such decisions to be kept entirely secret and buried in the darkest corners of council websites.

This creates a disturbing contradiction within the reforms. On one hand, the government claims it wants to give communities more say in their own destinies. Yet the proposed removal of these types of notices from local papers will do the exact opposite by reducing transparency.

The EDCE Bill will introduce some of the biggest changes to local authorities in England since the Local Government Act 1972 – full transparency is critical to delivering that effectively. Local news media is ideally placed to deliver this scrutiny – titles which are highly trusted and enjoy huge audiences in print and digital.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Sudan – and gold

Gold is currently selling at $4,038.05 an ounce. It has increased in value 121 percent in under five years.

It is also financing a civil war in Sudan which, according to the UN, has killed 150,000 civilians, displaced 25 million people and left 30 million facing acute hunger.

The two main Sudanese warring parties — the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — now rely heavily on gold as a source of income.

In 2024, gold production reportedly generated $1.7bn for Sudan via official channels. But then there are the unofficial channels, and, according to a UN Sanctions Committee Report, illicit smuggled gold is worth many times more than that which leaves the country through legal official channels.

The conflict over gold isn’t just a domestic issue. It is tied into a regional ecosystem with armed Sudanese actors with both camps connected to smugglers, refineries and foreign governments. All of which allows the two armies to convert gold into cash to buy weapons, fuel, food and other war needs.

Gold is the ideal money source for Sudan’s warring parties. For a start, Sudan has a lot of it. It is in the world’s top five for gold production. And geologists reckon that because conflict has prevented full exploration, there could be a lot more glitzy minerals in the Sudanese hills.

Next, it is relatively easy to mine, especially if you have no compunction about using environmentally dangerous and toxic mercury. The Sudanese warlords are not known for their green credentials.

Then, there is the fact that it is easily transportable. You can melt it down and mould into any easily smuggable shape, paint it black and carry it out to the gold markets where there is a constant and strong demand which means that the gold can be quickly converted into cash.

The biggest market is Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. The Dubai Gold Souk has been a major gold trading hub for centuries. In addition to the traditional souk with its hundreds of bullion shops there is a major free trade zone known as the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre. There is also a major gold refinery—Emirates Gold. In 2024 $186 billion in gold passed through the UAE.

More than 97 percent of Sudan’s gold is sold on the Dubai markets after being smuggled out through Egypt or Chad. Some of it is perfectly legal—about $1.52 billion. Just how much is illegal can be guessed at, but Swissaid, which monitors gold transfers, reckons that 60 tonnes of illegal smuggled gold is sold in Dubai. This could be worth up to $7 billion.

The UAE authorities say they follow OECD Due Diligence Regulations for Responsible Mineral Sourcing to ensure that the gold that they sell is coming from legitimate sources and is not being used to fund war. But this is challenged by Swissaid, Chatham House and the Financial Action Task Force, which was set up to combat money laundering and terrorist financing.

If the UAE authorities can be persuaded to stop the flow of illicit gold then it will sever the pipeline which is financing the fighting in Sudan and—hopefully—lead to its end.

Ukraine

Details of Trump’s latest peace plan for Ukraine are starting to leak out. The plan basically calls for Ukraine’s surrender.

Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would be “recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States.”

“Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact,” the proposal states. “Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions.”

The proposal also states: “It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.”

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Observations of an Expat: Four-sided Asia Conflict

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has re-ignited the tense Sino-Japanese relations that underscore the region’s volatile politics.

The roots of these tensions go back centuries and will doubtless last for centuries more. At the moment the main players are China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan with America playing an important peripheral role.

Korea and Japan have a long history involving cultural links, wars and cruel colonisation. According to many historians, the Japanese imperial family originated in Korea. It is a fact that many prominent Japanese have Korean genetic roots.

Much of Chinese culture reached Japan through the Korean Peninsula. This included Buddhism, Chinese writing, laws, government models, horsemanship, metallurgy, iron-working, architecture, construction and agricultural techniques.

From the Japanese point of view, Korea offered an invasion route into China. In the 16th century the Japanese fought a four-year war against Korea and were only defeated when the Chinese joined the fight on the side of the Koreans.

Then, of course, there is the Japanese colonial period from 1910 to 1945 with the bitter Korean memories of slave labour and “comfort women.”

Korea also has its problems with China with whom it has had a long on-off relationship which for centuries involved tributes and recognition of Chinese suzerainty. A key element in Korean foreign policy (north and south) is summed up by the word “sadae” which is interpreted as “serving the great” which in turn means that Korea will always prioritise good relations with China to secure protection and legitimacy.

Taiwan is a relatively more recent issue for both China and Japan. Its indigenous inhabitants—Austronesians—are neither Japanese nor Chinese. They are genetically and linguistically related to the Filipinos and Indonesians. It wasn’t until the 16th century that the Chinese started to take a peripheral interest in the island. Then the Dutch arrived and called it Formosa. This spurred the Ming Dynasty to action. They booted out the Dutch and shortly afterwards formally annexed the island.

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ALDC By Election Report 20th November

This week, there were seven local by-elections, of which there was a Liberal Democrat candidate in all but one contest. The six-month rule has now come into effect for seats that are up in 2026, so no more for this cycle will be called.

We start in Stratford-on-Avon, where there were two by-elections. One was a Liberal Democrat defence, whilst the other saw the Conservatives defending their seat. In the former, we successfully defended this seat. However, in the latter seat Reform were able to successfully gain off the Conservatives, only 3 votes ahead of us. Congratulations are due to Paul Harrison for his win. Commiserations to Huw Lewis and the local team for the extremely close result.

Stratford-on-Avon District Council, Quinton
Liberal Democrats (Paul Harrison): 437 (47.3%, +3.5)
Reform UK: 306 (33.1%, new)
Conservatives: 137 (14.8%, –26.2)
Green Party: 35 (3.8%, –4.7)
Labour: 9 (1.0%, –5.7)

Liberal Democrats HOLD

Turnout: 30.41%

Stratford-on-Avon District Council, Salford Priors and Alcester Rural
Reform UK: 272 (33.3%, new)
Liberal Democrats (Huw Lewis): 269 (32.9%, +9.7)
Conservatives: 227 (27.8%, –29.1)
Green Party: 31 (3.8%, –5.3)
Labour: 18 (2.2%, –8.6)

Reform UK GAIN from Conservative

Turnout: 33%

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The Liberal Democrats need policies for the North of England

In our internal federal elections for 2026, Josh Babarinde and Victoria Collins were elected as our President and Vice President respectively. I wish Mr Babarinde and Ms Collins the best of luck ahead of their tenures as their successes are our party’s successes.

In light of their victories, there is an issue facing our party which we need to address. Kamran Hussain, Ms Collins’ challenger for VP, stood as a candidate who would give the North of England a greater voice within the federal party. That is why I and members of my local and regional parties, among others in the North, supported Mr Hussain’s VP candidacy, and why I supported the Federal Policy Committee candidacies of Abrial Jerram and Andrew Haldane.

At present, our party is dominated by the South of England. Of our 72 MPs, nearly 82% represent Southern seats, with most senior party positions being held by MPs from this region. By contrast, the North of England has only four Lib Dem MPs, with the Northeast having none. While Lisa Smart, Tim Farron and Tom Morrison hold posts in the frontbench team, this continuing imbalance may portray us as a party of and for the South and put us bad stead electorally.

The North of England feels left behind in comparison to the rest of the United Kingdom. Yorkshire and Humberside and the Northeast are in the lowest third of English regions by GDP, with the former having a smaller GDP than the Southwest of England or Scotland despite all three having comparable populations (around 5,000,000 each). The North has rates of unemployment higher than the UK average and worse rates of poverty, deprivation, growth and investment than the South.

The North formed part of Labour’s Red Wall, but recent elections have demonstrated that Northern fealty to Labour is no longer a given. In 2019, the Red Wall collapsed to the Conservatives partly in rejection of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, with many seats in the region reverting to Labour in 2024 owing to vote-splitting by Reform UK. This year’s local elections were a clear rejection of the two-party status quo. While our party’s gains were concentrated in the South due to the continuation of our Blue Wall strategy, Reform’s were principally in the Midlands and North, with those in the latter including the councils of Lancashire, Doncaster and County Durham.

Reform’s performance in local government since May have been mixed. They have lost 38 councillors through resignation, defection, suspension or expulsion. Quarrels within Reform’s ranks have broken out. Spending has either been wasted through payouts for contract violations or cuts to vital maintenance works. Cases of ‘good’ Reform governance, such as Kent County Council’s call for more social care visas or Hull & East Yorkshire Mayor Luke Campbell’s support for his county’s renewables industry, saw breaks with party principles and emulation of the ‘establishment’ that they were meant to rail against.

Reform UK are not winning because of their policies but because of anger against the two major parties and their recent poor records in government. While we are picking up seats through by-elections following short-lived Reform stints in local government, we cannot rest on our laurels and assume that a lack of a plan will doom them by the time of the next general election.

Our policies of lowering prices, improving public services and investing in infrastructure theoretically have appeal in the North. However, we are not cutting through to voters, at least nationally. We must acknowledge that our policies do not address the specific needs of specific regions or communities, and we must recognise that Northern concerns are not purely economic in nature.

Viewed as a party of the South, we may by extension be viewed as a party of and for the middle class. Of the Northern seats we have won, they are usually centred on more affluent towns reminiscent of the Blue Wall, namely Harrogate & Knaresborough located within Yorkshire’s Golden Triangle. Having first seen the decline of heavy manufacturing which provided plentiful, proud work for unskilled and semiskilled workers, the boarding-up of high street and town centre businesses clearly marks another decline where fewer jobs are available. The university-level education now required in the modern job market is unaffordable or inaccessible to many and may be perceived as having little immediate benefit to afflicted communities. Within such environments, populist, anti-establishment parties calling for a return to ‘better times’ would have greater appeal.

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Economic growth – simple but not easy. Reform summary

In a recent 3-part series (part 1, part 2, part 3) I set out some remarks about the pursuit of ‘beneficial economic growth’, and why it needs to be systematic, rather than tokenistic or riddled with ‘solutions looking for problems’. Below is a summary.

‘The economy’ is still the No1 policy concern of the general public, and it was the central ‘cure all’ of the current Labour government when it was elected. The government did not, however, set out its approach systematically, or tell us ‘how’, thus leaving everything to hard-pressed civil servants. The coming dire budget is but one consequence.

QUALITY OF GROWTH

Economic policy throughout government should focus on the quality of growth, not just the quantity. Key quality attributes include fiscal, environmental and social sustainability.

DYSFUNCTIONAL INSTITUTIONS

Economic regulation and promotion is spread across government, and can be harmfully contradictory and dysfunctional. The institutional set up for orchestrating beneficial growth aims, is confusing, and ineffective. The interdependence of reforms seems not to be taken into account. There are many lessons from overseas.

CONCENTRATED FINANCE AND FINANCIALISATION

Investment banks, banks and non-bank-financial institutions, should be providing services to businesses, which should be the master not the servant of finance.  Extreme concentration in international finance (eg via index funds) has led to excessive financialisation, opaque cartelisation, and systemic risks. De-monopolisation and reforms to transparency and capital market rules, are the main remedies.

SCLEROTIC STATE

Few in the UK would disagree that the UK state is sclerotic. But why so ? Excessive secrecy and a lack of transparency and accountability is one factor. The major hidden culprits are … excessive contracting out, appalling procurement practices and lawful conflicts of interest. Coupled with the culture of ‘generalism’ in government and obsessive ‘commercial confidentiality’, this is catastrophic. Transparency, and major changes in the parliamentary supervision of governmental employees/departments, with more accountable value-for-money criteria, are the first reform steps.

LAND AVAILABILITY

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Our care workers deserve better than a 15–20 year wait to belong

I write this not only as a Liberal Democrat, but as a frontline care provider responsible for multiple members of staff across Stockton and Hartlepool. Among them are seven remarkable care assistants from Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and Pakistan. They came here legally, at Britain’s request, to fill the gaping holes in our NHS and social care system. Today, they keep the elderly and vulnerable safe, fed, clean, and dignified.

They are the reason thousands of families sleep at night knowing their loved ones are cared for.

And now, the Government is telling them they must wait 15 years, or even 20,  before they are allowed to call Britain home.

The human price behind the policy

Let me tell you what this looks like in real life.

One of my care assistants from Zimbabwe works six days a week. She sends money home to her children because she cannot afford to bring them here yet. When she heard the new rules, she asked quietly, “Will I still be waiting when they are grown?” She will be 57 by the time she reaches settlement under the 20-year rule.

A Nigerian carer on my team works double shifts. She has held the hands of dementia patients through the night, comforted people in their final hours, and supported families who were breaking under pressure. Her client told me recently, “She is like a daughter to me.” Yet the country she serves now says: You are welcome to care for our elderly, but not welcome to belong for two decades.

A young woman from Pakistan, who works nights and studies during the day, looked completely defeated when she realised she will spend her entire youth waiting for settlement. “Fifteen years… I’ll be in my forties by then,” she said. “I just wanted a stable life.”

These are not isolated stories. There are thousands like them across the UK.

A policy that punishes the very workers Britain relies on

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If Labour speaks like Powell, then we must stand like Jenkins

Immigration.

For many, it’s the issue that’s lasted a lifetime. While some, like me, view it as an extension of internationalism and the support of human rights, others view it as an idea to be feared and loathed, where they feel their cultures are set to be torn apart by “others” who are too barbaric ever to understand or accept Western societal views.

The fight for a respectful immigration policy is more prevalent than ever, with the current Labour Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, announcing her ‘moral mission’ to tackle illegal immigration. This mission, which she claims is ‘tearing communities apart’, involves making refugee status temporary, enforcing a regular two-and-a-half-year review for their applications, and requiring anyone arriving “illegally” to wait 20 years before they can apply for permanent settlement. These policies not only affect the individuals seeking refuge but also profoundly impact the communities they become part of.

This is a far cry from the Labour Party’s stance on immigration from the days of liberal reforming Home Secretary, Roy Jenkins. While not a supporter of unlimited immigration or open borders, Lord Jenkins was an outspoken supporter of cultural integration in a multicultural sense, referring to it as ‘equal opportunity, accompanied by cultural diversity, in an atmosphere of mutual tolerance‘.

There were, of course, the likes of Enoch Powell, who stood opposed to such tolerant and liberal views on immigration and espoused his own ideas, most notably his ‘Rivers of Blood‘ speech, comparing the rise in immigration to Britain preparing its own funeral pyre, calling for an immediate reduction in immigration.

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Lib Dem councillors win 2025 Cllr Awards

The winners of the Cllr Awards for England and Wales were announced by the Local Government Information Unit (LGIU) at an event on Tuesday night. Of the five awards two were won by Liberal Democrats, while a third was awarded to a former Lib Dem.

The Innovator of the Year award went to Cllr Alex Ehmann (centre of photo) of the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames.  His citation says:

Councillor Alexander Ehmann of the London Borough of Richmond Upon Thames has elevated transport and air quality agendas by focusing on residents’ involvement in the design process. He is leading the council’s transformation of its transport strategy with the development of the Richmond 2040 plan. And he was responsible for an innovative new entry treatment for school streets, which is now being adopted by other London Boroughs.

Cllr Harry Boparai (second from left) from Spelthorne Borough Council and Surrey County Council was gained the Community Champion award.

Councillor Harry Boparai from Surrey County Council and Spelthorne Borough Council is a tireless, hands-on problem-solver praised for his impact on everyday quality of life. His focus is on the issues that matter to residents, from tackling rogue landlords and fly-tipping to improving road safety. Well-known for his practical support of local causes, he plays a leading role in protecting green spaces, heritage projects, and supporting organisations working with young people.

Posted in News | Tagged | 7 Comments
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