The recent elections confirmed what opinion polls have been saying for some time.  Unless something radically changes, we are heading towards a Reform UK government, possibly with Conservative support.

To illustrate what this would mean, consider just one of Reform’s flagship policies: the retrospective removal of indefinite leave to remain.  People who were told by the British state that they could settle here, people who have lived here for decades, people who have worked, brought up children, bought their homes, integrated into local communities – our friends, neighbours or family – would be deported, by force if they resist.  Only those with high earnings would be spared.

Most British people, I believe, would be horrified at that prospect, but under first-past-the-post, you don’t need a majority.  27% may be enough.  This website shows a projection of parliamentary seats based on current opinion polls.  The margins of error are wide.  Most voters dislike Reform, and might be willing to vote tactically, but with a five or six-way split, in a changing situation, predicting the strongest alternative in each seat would be almost impossible.

Everyone can see the problem, but no-one seems to be proposing a realistic solution.  The tribulations of the Labour Party would be laughable if the stakes were not so high.  There has been much talk about progressive alliances, but these have always foundered on stonewalling from the Labour leadership.

There is, however, one possible alternative, which should now be taken more seriously.  Since the election of Zack Polanski (love him or loathe him), the combined support for the Lib Dems and Greens has consistently been greater than for Reform or any other party.  Separately, the gains made by both parties were modest; neither could expect to win a first-past-past-the-post national election.  In the rest of this article, I want to make the case for a temporary alliance between the two parties to fight the next general election.

The first point to make is that we don’t have to agree on policies, philosophy, personalities or campaigning approach.  I am not suggesting an existential alliance like the one between the Liberals and SDP in the 1980s.  The two parties would remain separate but agree to stand down candidates in half of the constituencies in England, and possibly in Wales.  The Greens in Scotland are a separate party committed to independence, which would make such an alliance more difficult there.

Each party would be free to campaign on its own manifesto, subject to a joint agreement on a few key principles.  These could include: changing the voting system, rejoining the European Union, stronger action on climate change and the environment and opposition to racism and Reform UK.  On areas of disagreement, we would negotiate, if the strategy leads to a potential government, which might also include the Labour Party.  As things stand, all parties will have to face the prospect of negotiations, whether they have made an pre-election alliance or not.