There were two principal council by-elections this week, both of which had a Liberal Democrat candidate on the ballot.
Northumberland Council, Cramlington South West
The Conservatives have gained the seat of Cramlington South West from Reform UK, who only won it themselves in last year’s local elections. But the incumbent councillor had to step down owing to illness. The seat was newly created in 2025. Generally, the Conservatives tend to do quite well in Cramlington, though in this specific seat they finished third behind Reform and Labour last year, while the Liberal Democrats did not put forward a candidate.
This result, alongside Reform’s loss in Kent last week and their reduced majority in the second of this week’s by-elections, may point to a possible “retention problem” for the party. While they finish top of the leaderboard both in terms of gains in by-elections and overall by-election wins since the 2025 locals, they finish third on seats successfully defended, only being able to hold onto less than half at 47%. For context, the Liberal Democrat retention rate over the same period is 80%. It could point to a problem that voters generally seem less enthusiastic about letting Reform back in again once they’ve tried them.
A huge thanks to Nick Cott for ensuring there was a Liberal Democrat option on the ballot paper this time.
Conservatives: 278 – 34.2% (+9.0)
Reform UK: 212 – 26.0% (-13.6)
Labour: 187 – 23.0% (-5.8
Green: 116 – 14.3% (New)
Independent: 13 – 1.6% (New)
Liberal Democrat: 7 – 0.9% (New)
Conservative GAIN from Reform UK
Turnout: 26.88%







it looks like a relatively gentle week in the Lords, although there will be an opportunity for the Lords to ask the Commons to think again… again… on the Victims and Courts Bill and the Crime and Policing Bill. Yes, it’s ping-pong time in the Lords…
I’ve been doing European politics with the Liberal Democrats on and off since 1989, long enough to know that it’s always worth waiting a little before declaring that a change of government is good news or not. Indeed, I’ve been around so long that I remember when FIDESZ were a welcome part of the liberal family – and Viktor Orban was its leader in those days too.
