In many ways, the 2026 Senedd election was historic. Wales is the first country in Great Britain to adopt proportional representation, utilising the D’Hondt voting system over a Mixed Member voting system. Its parliament has expanded from 60 to 96 members. For the first time in over a century, Labour is no longer the dominant party in Wales. Plaid is now the largest party, with its leader, Rhun ap Iorweth, becoming the new First Minister of Wales. Reform UK is the official opposition, and the Greens have made their Senedd debut.
But for all that has changed, one thing has remained the same: the Welsh Liberal Democrats still only hold one seat.
There is no point in pretending this was the result we wanted. While Jane Dodds’ re-election guarantees there is a voice for Welsh liberalism in the Senedd, this campaign has been one of survival, when it should have been one of growth.
The story of this election is far from complex. Welsh Labour’s support collapsed, while Plaid Cymru and Reform UK grew to represent the governing alternative and protest alternative, respectively. Their messages were simple and concentrated. Plaid argued that Labour had governed for too long, that Reform UK was dangerous, and only the literal Party of Wales could govern Wales as it should be. Reform, meanwhile, argued that the system was broken because of the same old establishment politicians, and it was time for a radical shift.
And what was the Welsh Liberal Democrat message? We argued that “only we can stop independence” and that “only we can stop Reform”. An understandable goal for a party that opposes nationalism and populism, but also one that painted us as reactive and always on the back foot. While Plaid and Reform wanted to bring change to the Welsh government, for better or worse, we told voters to be afraid of change, playing into both parties’ hands by framing ourselves as “just another establishment pro-union party”.




