Competing demographic trends inside Israel and its Western traditional supporters in are stacked against the Jewish state.
This week’s round of British-led sanctions against goods produced by West Bank settlers is a recognition of changing Western attitudes towards Israel.
Democracies by their very nature are dominated by short-term electoral cycles of two, four or five years. Demographic attitudinal changes, on the other hand, run over decades. Governments can postpone responding to the demographic realities because the electoral penalty is initially small. Then, quite suddenly, the accumulated change becomes impossible to ignore. Especially if there is a catalyst such as Gaza and the Iran War.
Israel was founded by a political elite with broadly European social-democratic institutions. In the first decades of its existence, Western publics — particularly after the Holocaust and during wars in which Israel appeared to be the vulnerable underdog — identified strongly with it. Living on an Israeli kibbutz became one of the “IN” ways of spending the summer or gap year.
But Israel also changed as its demographic make-up became less European and more Asian, African and home-grown. These Israelis grew up on the constant shadow of war and they became preoccupied with security and nationalism and increasingly distrustful of Palestinians, Arabs and Iran. Young people in the West became more aware of human-rights-based issues and the Palestinians.
During the 1967 Six-day War a Gallup poll showed that 56 percent of Americans backed Israel. Only four percent supported the Arab cause. During the 1973 Yom Kippur War American support was up to 54 percent. Support for the Arabs remained in single figures.
The arrival of Benjamin Netanyahu and a shift towards more right-wing, nationalistic and security-focused policies started a shift in Western attitudes. In 2010 America’s favourable attitudes towards Israel dropped to 40 percent. The drop was even more marked in Europe. Only 17 percent of Britons expressed support for Israel in 2010. In France the figure was 20 percent and in Canada 23 percent.
After Gaza and the Iran War the drop is more acute. In June 2026, American support for Israel had dropped to 37 percent for Americans and 25 percent among the British. But, more important, was the generational gap because that is the best indicator of future trends. In 2026, among 18 to 34 year olds, 23 percent expressed support for Israel while the figure for the 50-plus generation was 49 percent. In Britain the figureswere16 percent and 30 percent respectively.
Polls in Israel reflect a markedly different picture. Only 13 percent of Israeli Jews 18-34 supported a detailed two-state peace package solution compared to 40 percent for the over 55’s. The disparity is mirrored in issues such as Gaza, the Lebanon and Iran.
In Israel the demographic trends are moving in opposite directions from that of young Western voters. In the West the young especially are becoming increasingly critical of Israel, while young Jewish Israelis are generally more nationalistic, dismissive of the two-state solution, tougher on security issues and more hawkish than their parents.
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